Is Tinubu Still Relevant?

The APC crises is over, but the 2023 Presidential race is still heating up. How are the gladiators unfolding?

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Everywhere you turn in Nigeria today, there's only one year that matters, politically — 2023.

The 40-something year old man in a faded blue shirt and a knot-like-a-cutlass red tie at the Ojota newspaper stand, with nothing but scotch egg for breakfast, is talking about Edo state and how it ties to 2023. The ‘lazy’ Nigerian youth on Nairaland, whose data dries up as if the Telco is drinking it, is talking about Magu's woes and how it ties to 2023. Even my almost sexagenarian mum can't but join in when the entire family starts talking about why a 'National Leader' was not at his own Party's National Executive Committee meeting.

It's the same old story. Politicians keep politicking, and citizens who still pump their own water can't help but be distracted by the Nigerian Game of Thrones.

So, let's actually be distracted for a minute. What does 2023 look like? In fact, who will wear Bubu's shoes and try to walk a little faster than the venerated Baba go slow. Let's find out.

The Entanglement — A Movie By Tyler 'Oshiomole' Perry

Every crisis has a beginning, and APC's began on June 16 when Justice Mohammed Lamido upheld the suspension of Adams Oshiomhole, the Party's chairman, from Ward 10 of Etsako local government in Edo state. Note that Oshiomole had purportedly been suspended on November 12, 2019 via a ‘Vote of No Confidence’ passed on him by the Chairmen of the APC in the 18 Local Governments of the state over his role in the crisis rocking the state chapter of the Party — specifically the power tussle between himself and Godwin Obaseki, the Governor of the state.

Either way, the decision of the appellate court opened a can of worms over who should succeed Oshiomole as Party Chairman. Just a day after that ruling, Victor Giadom, a former Deputy National Secretary of the Party held a press conference and declared that he was now the Acting National Secretary of the Party based on compliance with the judgement of Justice S.U Bature in a suit dated FCT/HC/M/6447/2020 on March 16, 2020 in which the Court ordered the suspension of Adams Oshiomole and subsequently ordered that: “I, Chief Victor Giadom should act as National Chairman of our great Party".

Meanwhile, just a day before and on the same day that Oshiomole's suspension was upheld by the appellate court, 17 members the National Working Committee (NWC) of the APC had declared the Deputy National Chairman of the Party in the South-West, Abiola Ajimobi, as the Acting National Chairman of the Party. Relying on Section 14.2 (iii) of the APC Constitution, the NWC declared that the Deputy National Chairman North/South “Shall act as the National Chairman in the absence of the National Chairman from his zone”.

Thus, the crises rocking the party reached its crescendo. Two men had emerged captains of the same boat, and it was only a matter of time before said boat capzised. It was in the midst of this brouhaha that the police locked up the APC National Secretariat in Abuja, among other things, in which Victor Giadom called a virtual National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting — a meeting subsequently endorsed and attended by President Buhari, even though the NWC held that Giadom, having been suspended by the NWC was not qualified to convene the NEC meeting.

Buhari Sacks NWC, Appoints Buni

Events however took a sharp turn when the NEC meeting was finally convened. Buhari, in his remarks at the emergency meeting of the National Executive Council of the APC said the gains of the Party could be reversed as conflicts overshadow the primary objectives of the Party, which was hinged on

Consequently, Buhari called for immediate suspension of all pending litigations involving the Party and its members, as well as the ratification of the Party's Governorship primary election in Edo State. He further dissolved the entire National Working Committee (NWC) of the Party, after which the Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni, was sworn in by the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, as the Chairman of the Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee of the Party.

It would seem that courtesy of this deft move by the President, the leadership crises rocking Party was laid to rest in one fell swoop, with a National Convention for the election of a new Party Chairman and new NWC members tentatively scheduled for November.

Road to 2023 — Who Wants What?

Photo: APC Media

I'll tell you what — if you want to have some sense of Nigerian politics, the best place to look is not at the front pages of Newspapers, or even at their middle pages.

Currently, editors, columnists and all manners of pundits will have you believe that a certain Bolu Tinubu is at his wits end when it comes to gamesmanship of Nigerian politics. But I think not.

As it appears, at least to me, not one person in the ruling party can confidently tell you where the pendulum will swing in 2023, not even the President. Yes, there exists different strata of power brokers who will want to entrench their interests come election season, but again, the road is still so muddled up that the best any perceptive observer can do is pay attention to the 'game', and not to the self appointed commentators.

In a bid to ensure clarity, let's itemise the persons and parties who currently wield significant influence in the APC setup, and how they might bend the Party machinery to their side of the divide, come 2023:

1) President Muhammadu Buhari -

Undoubtedly, the most influential, and indeed most powerful person, in the APC right now has to be the President. This is not unconnected from the fact that the ruling party in Nigeria often always cede the position of 'National Leader' to the President. Perhaps this always becomes the case because of the Macchiavellian nature of Nigerian politics and the indispensability of whoever wields the state's economic and security apparatus. But we've seen this play out even in America where Donald Trump is often credited to have taken the Republican Party to new vistas of extreme rightism.

President Buhari is so powerful within and among the APC that he singlehandedly dissolved the NWC of the Party, directed that all Party cases in court be withdrawn, and called for a new Party convention — instructions which many have questioned its legality.

Ultimately, whoever Buhari handpicks to succeed him in 2023 will be the 'annointed candidate’. But Buhari himself has reiterated that he won't handpick his successor, and that whoever wants to be President like him should try his luck multiple times, just like he did.

But who knows. Maybe he can have a rethink, or the 'cabal' can impress on him to handpick a successor.

2) Progressive Governors Forum -

Certainly, only the President wields more influence in the APC setup than the 20 elected State Governors of the Party, coalesced under the umbrella of the 'Progressive Governors’ Forum', and chaired by Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State.

It once made news rounds that Governors Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Simon Lalong (Plateau), Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Badaru Abubakar (Jigawa), Abubakar Bello (Niger) and Mai-Mala Buni (Yobe) were specifically opposed to Tinubu's Presidential ambition. But I'll take that news with a pinch of salt, even as the Buni Committee just recently paid Tinubu a visit on issues related to Party unity.

Either way, the influential thing about Governors is that they hold the political key to the states they govern. This is why political parties will do anything to win states, because they know that by maintaining power in more states the Party has a brighter chance of winning the Presidency — after all, all that is largely needed is to exercise Party machinery in that state, either by sharing handouts or disrupting elections through brute or tacit force. Little wonder there's a lot of attention on the forthcoming Edo and Ondo elections, for instance — the outcomes there is immensely key to the APC or the PDP's fortunes in 2023.

3) Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu -

There remains continuos media speculations about the relevance of Bola Tinubu, especially within the APC — a Party he played significant roles as to its formation. But like I noted earlier, many columnists haranguing readers on the political homicide of Tinubu are simply besides the point. And in fact, it can be clearly observed that there is no love lost between Tinubu and the top echelons of the Party after the Buni led Caretaker Committee paid him a visit at his Bourdillon residence in Lagos.

Of course, it has become an open secret that Tinubu wants to succeed Buhari as President come 2023. But I would like to believe that the veteran politician is still keeping his cards tightly to his chest, and only time can reveal whatever masterstroke he has in the offing. Meanwhile, he will have to maneuver many political undercurrents if that dream is to come to fruition, including the opposition of some influential Governors in the Party while gaining the tacit support of whoever is Party Chairman at the time.

Was the sacking of Oshiomole a deadly blow to Tinubu's Presidential ambition, if he has any? Undoubtedly, Oshiomole and Tinubu had and still do have a good working relationship. But again, my opinion remains that 2023 is still too far for, politically, for anyone to make any self-fulfilling prophecies. The wisest politicians are simply bidding their time, at this point.

To Cut A Long Story Short

There remains so many actors that can play influential roles in the near term fortunes of Nigerian politics, and specifically the APC. For instance, the APC Executive Committee in Rivers State is reportedly split into factions loyal to Magnus Abe, a sitting Senator representing Rivers South-East Senatorial District and Rotimi Amaechi, a former Governor of the State and the current Minister of Transportation.

In Ondo, Mr Agboola Ajayi, the Deputy Governor's dumping of the APC for the PDP has turned the political shenanigans in the state on its head, with plots to impeach him by the State Assembly being rejected by the Chief Judge of the State, Justice Olanrewaju Akeredolu. Subsequently, the Secretary to the State Government of Ondo State, Ifedayo Abegunde, has also resigned from office, claiming that funds were not released to his office and that the Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, did not win the 2016 Governorship election, and that it was he and some persons who rigged the election for the emergence of the Governor.

Meanwhile, the Edo Governorship race is still heating up, and the aspirants and gladiators have begun hurling vitriols at each other, duly expected in a Governorship election campaign season in Nigeria.

In fact, there remains issues I have still not touched on, not least the touchy issue of ‘zoning’ and the zoning arrangement come 2023. But like I reiterate, 2023 is still a long time to declare any self-fulfilling prophecies, especially considering the topsy-turvy nature of Nigerian politics.

Indeed, to all of this one can only grab popcorn while observing the drama that is sure to shortly unfold, while doing either of three things:

1) Securing a visa to Canada;

2) Securing the bag;

3) Doing the best one personally can to make Nigeria a better place.

Personally, I have given up on this present crop of politicians.